Uruguay vs Spain Prediction
Win, draw and loss odds, a predicted scoreline and expected goals for Uruguay vs Spain at the 2026 World Cup — from Footsy's free Elo model. Group Stage · Matchday 3, Guadalajara.
Guadalajara
Expected goals 0.6 — 2.0 · Most likely 0-2 (15%)
Model gave the ESP win 75% before kickoff.
Uruguay vs Spain: the prediction
This Group Stage · Matchday 3 match finished Uruguay 0-1 Spain. Before kickoff, our Elo model rated it URU 3% / draw 22% / ESP 75%, with a most likely scoreline of 0-2.
Expected goals favour the Spain side (0.6 — 2.0), and the most likely scoreline is 0-2 (15%). There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 39% that both teams score. No live prediction market has priced this fixture yet.
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Predicted scorelines and win odds for every 2026 World Cup fixture, updated after each result.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Uruguay vs Spain?
- Our Elo model makes Spain the favourite, with a 75% chance to win in 90 minutes (Uruguay 3%, draw 22%, Spain 75%). It is a statistical estimate for entertainment, not a betting tip.
- What is the predicted score for Uruguay vs Spain?
- The single most likely scoreline is Uruguay 0-2 Spain (15%), from a Poisson model built on expected goals of 0.6 and 2.0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 39% that both teams score.
- How is this World Cup prediction calculated?
- Each nation carries a World Football Elo rating that re-rates after every completed match. A fixture’s win expectancy follows the standard Elo formula over the rating gap (plus a host-nation bonus), a draw share is carved out for evenly matched sides, and expected goals feed a Poisson model for the scoreline. Where a Polymarket market exists we show its implied odds as an independent reference.
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