World Cup 2026 Match Predictor
Ratings updated after 33 completed matchesWin, draw, and loss odds for every World Cup 2026 match from an Elo model that re-rates all 48 nations after each result. Includes expected goals, likely scorelines, and market prices.
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Model accuracy
How each model has scored over the 33 completed matchesso far. Brier and log loss are error scores — lower is sharper and better calibrated. Market and consensus scores build up from each fixture's pre-kickoff snapshot.
Elo model
Best0.547
Brier · lower is better
Log loss 0.889 · n=33
Consensus
No scored matches yet.
Market
No scored matches yet.
Consensus blends the Elo model with the market at up to 65% market weight (starting prior — tunes itself as snapshots resolve).
Elo calibration — does the favourite win as often as predicted?
| Predicted | Actually won | Matches |
|---|---|---|
| 38% | 50% | 2 |
| 43% | 20% | 5 |
| 55% | 60% | 5 |
| 66% | 64% | 11 |
| 74% | 67% | 6 |
| 85% | 75% | 4 |
Group Stage · Matchday 1
Mexico City
Expected goals 2.0 — 0.6 · Most likely 1-0 (15%)
Model gave the MEX win 74% before kickoff.
Guadalajara
Expected goals 1.4 — 1.2 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Model gave the KOR win 42% before kickoff.
Toronto
Expected goals 1.9 — 0.7 · Most likely 1-0 (14%)
Model gave the draw 23% before kickoff.
Inglewood, California
Expected goals 1.6 — 1.1 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Model gave the USA win 52% before kickoff.
Santa Clara, California
Expected goals 0.7 — 1.9 · Most likely 0-1 (14%)
Model gave the draw 24% before kickoff.
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Expected goals 1.4 — 1.2 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Model gave the draw 28% before kickoff.
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Expected goals 0.7 — 1.9 · Most likely 0-1 (14%)
Model gave the SCO win 69% before kickoff.
Vancouver
Expected goals 1.1 — 1.5 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Model gave the AUS win 22% before kickoff.
Houston, Texas
Expected goals 2.4 — 0.2 · Most likely 2-0 (21%)
Model gave the GER win 83% before kickoff.
Arlington, Texas
Expected goals 1.4 — 1.2 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Model gave the draw 28% before kickoff.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Expected goals 0.8 — 1.8 · Most likely 0-1 (13%)
Model gave the CIV win 10% before kickoff.
Guadalupe
Expected goals 1.3 — 1.3 · Most likely 1-1 (13%)
Model gave the SWE win 37% before kickoff.
Atlanta, Georgia
Expected goals 2.8 — 0.2 · Most likely 2-0 (19%)
Model gave the draw 9% before kickoff.
Seattle, Washington
Expected goals 1.7 — 0.9 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Model gave the draw 26% before kickoff.
Miami Gardens, Florida
Expected goals 0.7 — 1.9 · Most likely 0-1 (14%)
Model gave the draw 24% before kickoff.
Inglewood, California
Expected goals 1.7 — 0.9 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Model gave the draw 26% before kickoff.
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Expected goals 1.9 — 0.7 · Most likely 1-0 (14%)
Model gave the FRA win 71% before kickoff.
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Expected goals 0.6 — 2.1 · Most likely 0-2 (16%)
Model gave the NOR win 76% before kickoff.
Kansas City, Missouri
Expected goals 2.4 — 0.2 · Most likely 2-0 (21%)
Model gave the ARG win 83% before kickoff.
Santa Clara, California
Expected goals 1.8 — 0.8 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Model gave the AUT win 66% before kickoff.
Houston, Texas
Expected goals 2.1 — 0.5 · Most likely 2-0 (17%)
Model gave the draw 20% before kickoff.
Arlington, Texas
Expected goals 1.7 — 0.9 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Model gave the ENG win 61% before kickoff.
Toronto
Expected goals 1.2 — 1.4 · Most likely 1-1 (13%)
Model gave the GHA win 31% before kickoff.
Mexico City
Expected goals 0.7 — 1.9 · Most likely 0-1 (14%)
Model gave the COL win 69% before kickoff.
Group Stage · Matchday 2
Atlanta, Georgia
Expected goals 1.5 — 1.1 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Model gave the draw 28% before kickoff.
Inglewood, California
Expected goals 1.7 — 0.9 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Model gave the SUI win 62% before kickoff.
Vancouver
Expected goals 1.9 — 0.7 · Most likely 1-0 (14%)
Model gave the CAN win 72% before kickoff.
Guadalajara
Expected goals 1.7 — 0.9 · Most likely 1-0 (12%)
Model gave the MEX win 58% before kickoff.
Seattle, Washington
Expected goals 1.6 — 1.0 · Most likely 1-0 (12%)
Model gave the USA win 57% before kickoff.
Foxborough, Massachusetts
Expected goals 0.8 — 1.8 · Most likely 0-1 (13%)
Model gave the MAR win 65% before kickoff.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Expected goals 2.5 — 0.2 · Most likely 2-0 (21%)
Model gave the BRA win 85% before kickoff.
Santa Clara, California
Expected goals 1.3 — 1.3 · Most likely 1-1 (13%)
Model gave the PAR win 33% before kickoff.
Houston, Texas
Expected goals 1.8 — 0.8 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Model gave the NED win 66% before kickoff.
· Toronto
Expected goals 1.8 — 0.8 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 46%
No market data for this fixture yet.
· Kansas City, Missouri
Expected goals 2.2 — 0.4 · Most likely 2-0 (18%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 30%
· Guadalupe
Expected goals 0.6 — 2.0 · Most likely 0-1 (15%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 39%
· Atlanta, Georgia
Expected goals 2.4 — 0.2 · Most likely 2-0 (21%)
Over 2.5 goals 49% · Both teams score 16%
· Inglewood, California
Expected goals 1.6 — 1.0 · Most likely 1-0 (12%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 50%
· Miami Gardens, Florida
Expected goals 2.0 — 0.6 · Most likely 2-0 (16%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 37%
· Vancouver
Expected goals 1.0 — 1.6 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 51%
· Arlington, Texas
Expected goals 1.9 — 0.7 · Most likely 1-0 (14%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 42%
· Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Expected goals 2.3 — 0.3 · Most likely 2-0 (20%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 23%
· East Rutherford, New Jersey
Expected goals 1.8 — 0.8 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 46%
· Santa Clara, California
Expected goals 1.2 — 1.4 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 52%
· Houston, Texas
Expected goals 2.0 — 0.6 · Most likely 1-0 (15%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 39%
· Foxborough, Massachusetts
Expected goals 2.2 — 0.4 · Most likely 2-0 (18%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 28%
· Toronto
Expected goals 0.8 — 1.8 · Most likely 0-1 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 47%
· Guadalajara
Expected goals 2.0 — 0.6 · Most likely 1-0 (15%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 40%
Group Stage · Matchday 3
· Vancouver
Expected goals 1.2 — 1.4 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 53%
· Seattle, Washington
Expected goals 1.4 — 1.2 · Most likely 1-1 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 53%
· Atlanta, Georgia
Expected goals 2.5 — 0.2 · Most likely 2-0 (21%)
Over 2.5 goals 49% · Both teams score 17%
· Miami Gardens, Florida
Expected goals 0.7 — 1.9 · Most likely 0-1 (14%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 42%
· Guadalupe
Expected goals 1.0 — 1.6 · Most likely 0-1 (12%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 50%
· Mexico City
Expected goals 0.7 — 1.9 · Most likely 0-1 (14%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 42%
· East Rutherford, New Jersey
Expected goals 1.1 — 1.5 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 52%
· Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Expected goals 0.7 — 1.9 · Most likely 0-1 (14%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 43%
· Kansas City, Missouri
Expected goals 0.5 — 2.1 · Most likely 0-2 (17%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 33%
· Arlington, Texas
Expected goals 1.8 — 0.8 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 46%
· Inglewood, California
Expected goals 0.8 — 1.8 · Most likely 0-1 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 46%
· Santa Clara, California
Expected goals 1.4 — 1.2 · Most likely 1-1 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 53%
· Foxborough, Massachusetts
Expected goals 1.1 — 1.5 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 52%
· Toronto
Expected goals 1.6 — 1.0 · Most likely 1-0 (12%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 50%
· Guadalajara
Expected goals 0.7 — 1.9 · Most likely 0-1 (14%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 41%
· Houston, Texas
Expected goals 1.0 — 1.6 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 51%
· Vancouver
Expected goals 0.7 — 1.9 · Most likely 0-1 (14%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 41%
· Seattle, Washington
Expected goals 1.2 — 1.4 · Most likely 1-1 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 53%
· Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Expected goals 1.7 — 0.9 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 48%
· East Rutherford, New Jersey
Expected goals 0.3 — 2.3 · Most likely 0-2 (20%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 24%
· Atlanta, Georgia
Expected goals 1.3 — 1.3 · Most likely 1-1 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 53%
· Miami Gardens, Florida
Expected goals 1.3 — 1.3 · Most likely 1-1 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 53%
· Arlington, Texas
Expected goals 0.2 — 2.5 · Most likely 0-2 (21%)
Over 2.5 goals 51% · Both teams score 17%
· Kansas City, Missouri
Expected goals 0.8 — 1.8 · Most likely 0-1 (13%)
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 47%
Power rankings
Elo ratings for all 48 nations, re-derived after every completed match (K=60, goal-difference weighted). Δ shows movement since the tournament started.
| # | Nation | Group | Rating | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | J | 2157 | +7 |
| 2 | Spain | H | 2151 | -29 |
| 3 | England | L | 2104 | +24 |
| 4 | France | I | 2045 | +15 |
| 5 | Brazil | C | 2030 | 0 |
| 6 | Netherlands | F | 2010 | +20 |
| 7 | Morocco | C | 1993 | +18 |
| 8 | Portugal | K | 1987 | -23 |
| 9 | Colombia | K | 1967 | +17 |
| 10 | Norway | I | 1964 | +14 |
| 11 | Germany | E | 1958 | +8 |
| 12 | Japan | F | 1949 | +4 |
| 13 | Belgium | G | 1885 | -15 |
| 14 | USA | D | 1883 | +63 |
| 15 | Mexico | A | 1881 | +31 |
| 16 | Austria | J | 1880 | +20 |
| 17 | Switzerland | B | 1878 | +8 |
| 18 | Croatia | L | 1876 | -24 |
| 19 | Uruguay | H | 1867 | -18 |
| 20 | Ecuador | E | 1858 | -47 |
| 21 | Canada | B | 1831 | +1 |
| 22 | Paraguay | D | 1805 | -5 |
| 23 | Korea Republic | A | 1789 | +9 |
| 24 | Australia | D | 1781 | +31 |
| 25 | Türkiye | D | 1761 | -89 |
| 26 | Scotland | C | 1753 | -2 |
| 27 | IR Iran | G | 1746 | -14 |
| 28 | Senegal | I | 1740 | -15 |
| 29 | Côte d'Ivoire | E | 1737 | +47 |
| 30 | Sweden | F | 1736 | +31 |
| 31 | Egypt | G | 1720 | +15 |
| 32 | Czechia | A | 1707 | -33 |
| 33 | Ghana | L | 1698 | +33 |
| 34 | Uzbekistan | K | 1683 | -17 |
| 35 | Algeria | J | 1678 | -7 |
| 36 | Congo DR | K | 1668 | +23 |
| 37 | Panama | L | 1667 | -33 |
| 38 | Saudi Arabia | H | 1658 | +18 |
| 39 | Tunisia | F | 1645 | -55 |
| 40 | South Africa | A | 1639 | -6 |
| 41 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 1638 | -7 |
| 42 | Jordan | J | 1620 | -20 |
| 43 | Qatar | B | 1608 | -2 |
| 44 | Iraq | I | 1606 | -14 |
| 45 | New Zealand | G | 1604 | +14 |
| 46 | Cabo Verde | H | 1539 | +29 |
| 47 | Haiti | C | 1484 | -16 |
| 48 | Curaçao | E | 1472 | -8 |
Methodology
Every nation carries an Elo rating seeded from World Football Elo Ratings at the start of the tournament. For a fixture, the win expectancy is 1 / (1 + 10^(−Δ/400)) where Δ is the rating gap; the three host nations (USA, Mexico, Canada) receive a +100 home-advantage bonus. A draw probability — about 28% for evenly matched sides, decaying with the gap — is carved out of both win shares proportionally.
After each completed match, ratings move by K × G × (W − We) with the World Cup K-factor of 60 and a goal-difference multiplier G (1 for a one-goal margin, 1.5 for two, (11+d)/8 beyond). Penalty-shootout wins rate as draws. Expected goals split a 2.6-goal baseline by the rating gap, and an independent Poisson model turns those into the most likely scoreline.
All probabilities are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes — football remains gloriously unpredictable.
Frequently asked questions
- How are the probabilities calculated?
- Each nation starts with a World Football Elo rating. A fixture’s win expectancy follows the standard Elo formula over the rating gap (plus a home-advantage bonus for the three host nations), a draw share is carved out as a function of how evenly matched the sides are, and expected goals scale with the gap to produce a Poisson scoreline matrix.
- Do the ratings change during the tournament?
- Yes. After every completed match, ratings update with the World Cup K-factor of 60, weighted by goal difference — exactly the eloratings.net convention. Shootout wins count as draws, since it is the 90/120-minute score that rates. The power rankings table shows each nation’s movement since matchday one.
- What is the "market view" under some fixtures?
- Where a public prediction market exists for a fixture on Polymarket, we show its implied win/draw/loss percentages (normalized to sum to 100%) next to our model as an independent reference point. It is informational only — Footsy displays the data and is not a betting service.
- Why do knockout matches show an "advances" percentage?
- Knockout ties cannot end level: the win/draw/loss split covers the first 90 minutes, and the draw probability is then divided between the sides by rating expectancy to estimate each team’s chance of progressing via extra time or penalties.
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