Spain vs Argentina Prediction
Win, draw and loss odds, a predicted scoreline and expected goals for Spain vs Argentina at the 2026 World Cup — from Footsy's free Elo model. Final, East Rutherford, New Jersey.
· East Rutherford, New Jersey
Expected goals 1.4 — 1.2 · Most likely 1-1 (13%) · Advances: ESP 54% / ARG 46%
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 53%
No market data for this fixture yet.
Spain vs Argentina: the prediction
Our Elo model makes Spain the favourite to progress, with a 39% chance to win in 90 minutes against Argentina. The full split is Spain 39%, draw 28%, Argentina 33% — based on ratings of 2248 and 2224.
Expected goals favour the Spain side (1.4 — 1.2), and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 53% that both teams score. No live prediction market has priced this fixture yet.
All World Cup predictions
Predicted scorelines and win odds for every 2026 World Cup fixture, updated after each result.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Spain vs Argentina?
- Our Elo model makes Spain the favourite, with a 39% chance to win in 90 minutes (Spain 39%, draw 28%, Argentina 33%). To advance, it has Spain 54% and Argentina 46%. It is a statistical estimate for entertainment, not a betting tip.
- What is the predicted score for Spain vs Argentina?
- The single most likely scoreline is Spain 1-1 Argentina (13%), from a Poisson model built on expected goals of 1.4 and 1.2. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 53% that both teams score.
- How is this World Cup prediction calculated?
- Each nation carries a World Football Elo rating that re-rates after every completed match. A fixture’s win expectancy follows the standard Elo formula over the rating gap (plus a host-nation bonus), a draw share is carved out for evenly matched sides, and expected goals feed a Poisson model for the scoreline. Where a Polymarket market exists we show its implied odds as an independent reference.
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