England vs Argentina Prediction
Win, draw and loss odds, a predicted scoreline and expected goals for England vs Argentina at the 2026 World Cup — from Footsy's free Elo model. Semi-finals, Atlanta, Georgia.
· Atlanta, Georgia
Expected goals 1.2 — 1.4 · Most likely 1-1 (12%) · Advances: ENG 38% / ARG 62%
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 52%
England vs Argentina: the prediction
Our Elo model makes Argentina the favourite to progress, with a 45% chance to win in 90 minutes against England. The full split is England 27%, draw 28%, Argentina 45% — based on ratings of 2136 and 2200.
Expected goals favour the Argentina side (1.2 — 1.4), and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 52% that both teams score. The Polymarket view prices it 37% / 32% / 30% — shown as an independent reference, not a betting service.
All World Cup predictions
Predicted scorelines and win odds for every 2026 World Cup fixture, updated after each result.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win England vs Argentina?
- Our Elo model makes Argentina the favourite, with a 45% chance to win in 90 minutes (England 27%, draw 28%, Argentina 45%). To advance, it has England 38% and Argentina 62%. It is a statistical estimate for entertainment, not a betting tip.
- What is the predicted score for England vs Argentina?
- The single most likely scoreline is England 1-1 Argentina (12%), from a Poisson model built on expected goals of 1.2 and 1.4. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 52% that both teams score.
- How is this World Cup prediction calculated?
- Each nation carries a World Football Elo rating that re-rates after every completed match. A fixture’s win expectancy follows the standard Elo formula over the rating gap (plus a host-nation bonus), a draw share is carved out for evenly matched sides, and expected goals feed a Poisson model for the scoreline. Where a Polymarket market exists we show its implied odds as an independent reference.
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