Mexico vs South Africa Prediction
Win, draw and loss odds, a predicted scoreline and expected goals for Mexico vs South Africa at the 2026 World Cup — from Footsy's free Elo model. Group Stage · Matchday 1, Mexico City.
Mexico City
Expected goals 2.0 — 0.6 · Most likely 1-0 (15%)
Model gave the MEX win 74% before kickoff.
Mexico vs South Africa: the prediction
This Group Stage · Matchday 1 match finished Mexico 2-0 South Africa. Before kickoff, our Elo model rated it MEX 74% / draw 22% / RSA 3%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0.
Expected goals favour the Mexico side (2.0 — 0.6), and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 39% that both teams score. No live prediction market has priced this fixture yet.
All World Cup predictions
Predicted scorelines and win odds for every 2026 World Cup fixture, updated after each result.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Mexico vs South Africa?
- Our Elo model makes Mexico the favourite, with a 74% chance to win in 90 minutes (Mexico 74%, draw 22%, South Africa 3%). It is a statistical estimate for entertainment, not a betting tip.
- What is the predicted score for Mexico vs South Africa?
- The single most likely scoreline is Mexico 1-0 South Africa (15%), from a Poisson model built on expected goals of 2.0 and 0.6. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 39% that both teams score.
- How is this World Cup prediction calculated?
- Each nation carries a World Football Elo rating that re-rates after every completed match. A fixture’s win expectancy follows the standard Elo formula over the rating gap (plus a host-nation bonus), a draw share is carved out for evenly matched sides, and expected goals feed a Poisson model for the scoreline. Where a Polymarket market exists we show its implied odds as an independent reference.
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