IR Iran vs New Zealand Prediction
Win, draw and loss odds, a predicted scoreline and expected goals for IR Iran vs New Zealand at the 2026 World Cup — from Footsy's free Elo model. Group Stage · Matchday 1, Inglewood, California.
Inglewood, California
Expected goals 1.7 — 0.9 · Most likely 1-0 (13%)
Model gave the draw 26% before kickoff.
IR Iran vs New Zealand: the prediction
This Group Stage · Matchday 1 match finished IR Iran 2-2 New Zealand. Before kickoff, our Elo model rated it IRN 60% / draw 26% / NZL 14%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0.
Expected goals favour the IR Iran side (1.7 — 0.9), and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 49% that both teams score. No live prediction market has priced this fixture yet.
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Predicted scorelines and win odds for every 2026 World Cup fixture, updated after each result.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win IR Iran vs New Zealand?
- Our Elo model makes IR Iran the favourite, with a 60% chance to win in 90 minutes (IR Iran 60%, draw 26%, New Zealand 14%). It is a statistical estimate for entertainment, not a betting tip.
- What is the predicted score for IR Iran vs New Zealand?
- The single most likely scoreline is IR Iran 1-0 New Zealand (13%), from a Poisson model built on expected goals of 1.7 and 0.9. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 49% that both teams score.
- How is this World Cup prediction calculated?
- Each nation carries a World Football Elo rating that re-rates after every completed match. A fixture’s win expectancy follows the standard Elo formula over the rating gap (plus a host-nation bonus), a draw share is carved out for evenly matched sides, and expected goals feed a Poisson model for the scoreline. Where a Polymarket market exists we show its implied odds as an independent reference.
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