France vs Morocco Prediction
Win, draw and loss odds, a predicted scoreline and expected goals for France vs Morocco at the 2026 World Cup — from Footsy's free Elo model. Quarter-finals, Foxborough, Massachusetts.
· Foxborough, Massachusetts
Expected goals 1.5 — 1.1 · Most likely 1-1 (12%) · Advances: FRA 64% / MAR 36%
Over 2.5 goals 48% · Both teams score 52%
No market data for this fixture yet.
France vs Morocco: the prediction
Our Elo model makes France the favourite to progress, with a 47% chance to win in 90 minutes against Morocco. The full split is France 47%, draw 28%, Morocco 25% — based on ratings of 2117 and 2039.
Expected goals favour the France side (1.5 — 1.1), and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 52% that both teams score. No live prediction market has priced this fixture yet.
All World Cup predictions
Predicted scorelines and win odds for every 2026 World Cup fixture, updated after each result.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win France vs Morocco?
- Our Elo model makes France the favourite, with a 47% chance to win in 90 minutes (France 47%, draw 28%, Morocco 25%). To advance, it has France 64% and Morocco 36%. It is a statistical estimate for entertainment, not a betting tip.
- What is the predicted score for France vs Morocco?
- The single most likely scoreline is France 1-1 Morocco (12%), from a Poisson model built on expected goals of 1.5 and 1.1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 52% that both teams score.
- How is this World Cup prediction calculated?
- Each nation carries a World Football Elo rating that re-rates after every completed match. A fixture’s win expectancy follows the standard Elo formula over the rating gap (plus a host-nation bonus), a draw share is carved out for evenly matched sides, and expected goals feed a Poisson model for the scoreline. Where a Polymarket market exists we show its implied odds as an independent reference.
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