Australia vs Türkiye Prediction
Win, draw and loss odds, a predicted scoreline and expected goals for Australia vs Türkiye at the 2026 World Cup — from Footsy's free Elo model. Group Stage · Matchday 1, Vancouver.
Vancouver
Expected goals 1.1 — 1.5 · Most likely 1-1 (12%)
Model gave the AUS win 22% before kickoff.
Australia vs Türkiye: the prediction
This Group Stage · Matchday 1 match finished Australia 2-0 Türkiye. Before kickoff, our Elo model rated it AUS 22% / draw 27% / TUR 50%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-1.
Expected goals favour the Türkiye side (1.1 — 1.5), and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 52% that both teams score. No live prediction market has priced this fixture yet.
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Predicted scorelines and win odds for every 2026 World Cup fixture, updated after each result.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Australia vs Türkiye?
- Our Elo model makes Türkiye the favourite, with a 50% chance to win in 90 minutes (Australia 22%, draw 27%, Türkiye 50%). It is a statistical estimate for entertainment, not a betting tip.
- What is the predicted score for Australia vs Türkiye?
- The single most likely scoreline is Australia 1-1 Türkiye (12%), from a Poisson model built on expected goals of 1.1 and 1.5. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and 52% that both teams score.
- How is this World Cup prediction calculated?
- Each nation carries a World Football Elo rating that re-rates after every completed match. A fixture’s win expectancy follows the standard Elo formula over the rating gap (plus a host-nation bonus), a draw share is carved out for evenly matched sides, and expected goals feed a Poisson model for the scoreline. Where a Polymarket market exists we show its implied odds as an independent reference.
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